The Coming Exodus
Where will all of these Facebook and other platform app developers go when the hooplah subsides, existing viral channels get blown out, and the economics no longer make sense? Here are some first guesses (in order of least to most risk):
1) Long vacations
Likely, a lot of these guys have made more money more quickly than ever before and they’re enjoying it. At the end of the day, unless you’re Max Levchin sitting on top of an application empire, these things are lifestyle businesses, but the expendable cash flow could be healthy enough to sit back and relax for a bit until the next gold rush comes along.
2) Big tech companies
I’m not sure if I have personally heard of any app developers jumping into the stable corporate world yet, but the option will always be there for them. Companies like Google would love to have some of the best, self-starting, creative tech people in their circles to revitalize things, but can the developers ever get excited inside these painfully slow beauracracies?
3) Top tier app companies
Obviously, developers are getting sucked into these big players like Slide from all angles. They are swallowed up with less than healthy buyouts of their apps, but get the stability of work and the chance to leverage the huge arsenal of resources and cross-selling opportunities. Aside from the buyouts themselves, I don’t know what the compensation structure is inside these entities, but it can’t be as rewarding (since it is certainly not as risky) as going at it alone. At some point, if not immediately, these economics won’t make sense and app developers will want their control back and be sick of working to make their bosses’ pockets deep.
4) Small-scale developer rollups
It is common lately to see these individual developers or mini-teams banding together against the big guns. Andrew wrote a nice short post about that last month about why it’s almost impossible to compete over the long haul in this space. This to me seems like a futile compromise on the parts of the developers. Working at Slide has its career perks and stability. Going at it alone has exciting bursts of revenue and mini-fame. Is there longevity to this middle ground position that doesn’t really have the pros of either?
5) Full-fledged startups
So I’ve been skeptical enough about the first four possibilities that I think the fifth is where these developers will head, into the true non-platform-dependent startup world. Economically, founding or getting in early on something potentially huge makes much more long-term sense than even the best Facebook apps and they still get the excitement of building something quickly (just not quite as fast end-to-end).
On the plus side, these developers will have great DNA for the startup world and particularly consumer internet. They understand rapid development and scaling, user psychology, incentives, interactions, and every trick in the book to pump page views, click-throughs, and all the revenue drivers. Their creativity and prowess could be great in the startup world.
The challenge for these guys is understanding how to go big, and fast, without the training wheels of Facebook. Googlers who release products in the Google Pack might make really cool things, but what happens to their distribution when you take away the automatic deployment? What happens when you take a Microsoft developer’s Windows Update away (ok, that would never happen, but think about it)? Similarly, the cold, hard world of starting from the ground up will be an excellent challenge, and one that these guys should be eager to step up to.
It will be cool to see what interesting things spring up when these app developers realize their career path is not sustainable or no longer so economically or socially lucrative and begin to go off the platforms. Many will fail, but some may succeed and we as users of the Internet will probably get some very cool web products as a result. But again, that same question remains. Will these guys who are used to immediate growth leveraging existing social graphs be able to persevere in a world where good viral is something only earned with lots of hard work, statistics, reporting, attention to detail, and countless steps of iteration?
Tags: App Developers, Facebook, Future, Startups, Viral
